Start here
The reading order that builds the argument, if you are new.
The month ahead
Timely notes that map the calendar to the scoreboard.
September 7, 2026 · Deal analysisThe Shovel-Seller Buys the Map of the Mine: NVIDIA's $12.93 Billion for Hugging Face
Financially immaterial, strategically the purchase of the industry's default model distribution point. The whole analysis rides on one promise: the platform stays open. We state the falsifier plainly.
September 2, 2026 · Earnings reaction, published same nightBroadcom Clears the Bar: The Demand Ratio Gets a Quarter of Evidence in Its Favor
AI revenue beat the guide, the Q4 AI guide accelerated 30 percent sequentially, and the stock fell anyway. Scored against the decision tree we published before the print.
August 31, 2026 · Market NoteThe September Setup: A Month of Tests for the Scoreboard
Ten dated catalysts in the month ahead, each mapped to the published break condition it could trigger.
The economics of intelligence
What the AI era is, and who collects when it matures.
July 27, 2026 · FrameworkThe Three Waves of AI and the $250 Billion Question
The spine framework: the ASI race, the smart-cheap-fast wave, physical AI, and our analysis of the reported NVIDIA guarantee behind OpenAI's largest data center.
August 30, 2026 · FrameworkThe Token Tollbooth: Where AI's Value Settles When the Waves End
The economy has begun buying intelligence the way it buys electricity, metered and in compounding volume, and the toll collectors are the four platforms that own the flywheel.
The hardware cycle
The machines underneath, and the constraint that moves.
August 30, 2026 · Company coverageNVIDIA's $96 Billion Quarter: What the Print Settled, and What It Didn't
A 106% growth quarter, a supply-capped 70% guide, the backstop's actual terms, and the negatives the bulls should not skip. Five break conditions published.
August 31, 2026 · FrameworkThe Fourth Leg: Where the AI Trade Goes After Memory
We missed the memory re-rate and published the post-mortem. Constraint migration, where the next underpriced leg sits, and the bear case against our own answer.
Power
The buildout's binding constraint is electricity.
August 30, 2026 · FrameworkPowering Intelligence: The AI Buildout's Next Bottleneck Is Electricity
Technology-agnostic, timeline-desperate buyers; a fission window from 2028 to 2035; and fusion as the hedge, not the replacement.
The consequences
What happens downstream if the machines work.
August 31, 2026 · FrameworkThe Displacement Cascade: What Happens If AI Empties the Office
Six orders of consequence if AI displaces white-collar work at scale, with the framework's own miss owned in the text and six break conditions.
From the archive
Older work, republished and graded.
August 31, 2026 · RetrospectiveThe February Call, Six Months On
Our February thesis republished in condensed form and graded leg by leg: what was right, what was early, and the miss by omission we own on the record.
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The scoreboard
The pages where we grade ourselves.